First let us me run through the usual disclaimers. We are producing lots of greenhouse gases, and they tend to warm up the Earth. The last ten years have been warmer than any other ten years in our recent history. In the arctic, we have never had as little ice during the summer in our recent history. These are scientific facts.
So global warming, as a scientific theory, is pretty solid. It sounds very improbable at this point that the next 50 years will be colder. In all likelihood it will get warmer. Anyone who has read the papers and looked at the evidence would agree.
So far so good?
I have no problem with the science of global warming. But I hold many things against global warming activists. The first being their use of the term “denier” to describe anyone who does not share their point of view. I realize that this allusion to holocaust deniers is just a consequence of Godwin’s law. Nevertheless, I hold that anyone who needs to invoke Nazi Germany to support his arguments has lost moral grounding.
The second thing that annoys me about global warming activists is their pseudo-science. As I clearly stated, global warming is supported by (good) science. But to make their points stronger, for reasons that escape me, activists feel the need to pile up more “science”.
Right now, in North America, we have a terrible cold wave complete with cryoseisms. So the activists have jumped on this as evidence of global warming while their opponents have argued that it disproves global warming.
But not only does the cold spell not disprove climate change, it may well be that global warming could be making the occasional bout of extreme cold weather in the U.S. even more likely. (TIME)
Our freezing weather is the result of global warming. This polar vortex descended on us because arctic warming combines with increasing amounts of water in the atmosphere to produce instabilities in the jet streams that normally keep arctic weather up north. We should expect such vortexes more frequently in the future as arctic temperatures continue to rise faster than elsewhere and more water gets absorbed into the hotter atmosphere. (Huffington Post)
This is just crazy. You have a few days of bad weather and it supports (or invalidates?) a theory that has to do with how the climate evolves over decades?
But let us play this game. Let us assume that we can assess a theory based on the current weather. Then you cannot cherry pick. Every event has to be looked at and used to either increase or lower your confidence.
So if extreme weather supports global warming, then non-extreme weather should contribute to invalidate it. If a cold winter proves (or disproves?) global warming, then warm winters run contrary to it (or support it). So while we are having a very cold winter in North America (supports or invalidates global warming?), people in New Zealand have had the warmest winter on record (invalidates or validates global warming?). Oh! And the US has had a record low number of tornadoes this year (invalidates global warming?).
Picking data in a subjective manner is pseudo-science. That is not how science is done. Data has to be systematically processed and you have to acknowledge all of the evidence, not just what agrees with your theory, or what is reported by the media, or what is noticeable to you.
There are fewer tornadoes in the US, but that, in itself, tells me very little about the validity of the global warming theory. A few days of cold weather tell me even less.
You have to realize that once you fall prey to pseudo-science, you justify your opponents’ pseudo-science as well. If a few cold days during the winter are evidence for (or against) global warming, then a few warm days are evidence against (or for) it. You end up in a stupid shouting match.
Global warming activists have convinced the public that “extreme” weather is caused by global warming. When a storm hits, it is “caused” by global warming. Are there more storms today than there were 50 years ago? Who cares! If the winter is unusually cold, it is because of global warming. Does it feel like a warm winter? Again, global warming. Did a tornado destroy your house? Blame global warming.
Opponents play the same game. A cold winter? Proof that there is no global warming.
Let us stop.