One expert predicted the recession. He was ridiculed. Watch and draw your conclusions.

Source: Standard Deviations.

3 Comments »

  1. LOL
    Like in any other field there is always one expert who is right.
    The difficult matter is to figure out which one!

    Comment by Kevembuangga — 15/11/2008 @ 2:35

  2. At least, don’t trust those on Fox News.

    Comment by Geoff Wozniak — 15/11/2008 @ 9:51

  3. I wonder what his overall track record has been. If you’re always predicting a recession, you’ll eventually be right.

    And even if you’re right more often than other analysts, you still have to make the proper investment decisions based on your predictions. Here, the gold call was dubious.

    Most of these financial ‘experts’ are apprentice sorcerers, with little actual knowledge of either the real drivers of economic change or their own cognitive biases.

    Comment by Daniel Haran — 17/11/2008 @ 12:10

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