I have an ongoing bet with Greg Linden stating that we are going to sell 10 million virtual-reality (VR) units per year by 2019.
I have been paying close attention to VR technology and its impact.
What have we learned in the last few months?
- The technology is fantastic. VR headsets work.
- The software is currently the weak point. Besides games and “experiences”, we simply have no compelling application. And while there are some good games, none of them is good enough to motivate millions into purchasing a VR headset.
- A nice surprise: Sony has managed to make VR work with the relatively underpowered PlayStation 4. The initial reports are very positive. I think that’s important: it shows that relatively weak and inexpensive processors are sufficient for VR.
I key indicator is how many VR headsets Sony manages to sell over Christmas.